Pressure from allied forces, COVID-19 slow down Al-Shabaab attacks in Somalia

Sustained pressure from allied forces and impact of COVID19 on the movement of populations has slowed down Al-Shabaab attacks, but the group has switched from large scale bomb attacks to the deployment of IEDs, a new report has said.

In its semi-annual report, the Mogadishu based security think tank Hiraal Institute observes a slowing trend in overall Al-Shabaab attacks in the first half of 2020 compared to the same time last year. Still, it warns the move could be an adaptive strategy by the militant group.

Noting that the group had lost access to the capital Mogadishu to collect taxes and large-scale bomb attacks, the report says, the group has resorted to Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).

Overall, the group conducted 433 attacks countrywide in the first half of 2019 compared to 384 this year. Assassinations, however, remained the same at 103, the same as raids against military outposts while mortar shelling rose from 10 in 2019 to 36 this year.

The report notes that the reduction in attacks can also be attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic, which has seen most targets-public servants work from home cutting down on movements. It warns, however, the rest of the year could see an uptick in attacks as COVID-19 restrictions are eased.

The report also points to Al-Shabaab increased interest in Jubbaland owing to struggle with the Federal Government.

“Its main focus among the FMSs is Jubaland, where it increased its attacks, trying to capitalise on that FMS’s worsening relations with the FGS and Ethiopia,” the report notes adding the group is also exploiting the reduction in operations by Ethiopian forces in the region.

Allied attacks continue to have the most effect on Al-Shabaab’s rural operations and S/VBIED attacks, which originate from the rural areas. These attacks decrease with increased allied attacks, the report observes.

The report warns Al-Shabaab is pivoting towards more usage of suicide bombers using explosive vests in urban areas, and away from Suicide Vehicle-Borne IED attacks.